Boris Yeltsin, Boris-Yeltsin.com

Just

Just how sick is Boris? A sidelined president is the last thing Russia needs.

A sidelined president is the last thing Russia needs

IT SO HAPPENS,” BORIS YELTSIN SAID last month, “that winter is nearly a natural calamity in Russia. Every year it is as if it hits us like a bolt from the blue, the same problems all over again.”

This winter it’s worse. Russia’s government is bankrupt, completely dependent upon foreign aid. Its capital markets, recently among the world’s most buoyant, are crumbling. Nervous about possible bank failures, Russians are beginning to dump rubles in favor of dollars. And top officials have been weakened by infighting and scandal. As the snows blanket Moscow, it is obvious that the country’s stability remains unhealthily dependent upon one man. One who, it is painfully clear, may not be up to the stresses of a brutal job.

For eight years, Boris Yeltsin has been an actuarial accident waiting to happen. The average life span of the Russian male is 58, and the country’s president is now 66. So when he gets sick, as he did last week, everyone else gets nervous. In announcing that Yeltsin had checked into a sanitarium in Barvikha, just outside Moscow, the Kremlin insisted that he was suffering from a cold that had worsened into an acute viral infection. But the government has a long and undistinguished history of not telling the truth when it comes to Boris Yeltsin’s true condition. And last Thursday, The Washington Post, citing two anonymous sources, reported that Yeltsin in fact was suffering from heart trouble again; one called it “very serious.” A source close to the Kremlin told NEWSWEEK that part of the problem was heart-related, but that “it’s not serious; that is, not life threatening.”

Yeltsin’s admission to the rest home came after a surreal diplomatic trip to Sweden the week before. At one point, while speaking in Stockholm, he plainly thought he was in Finland. He also made a reference to Japan as a nuclear power (it’s anything but) and made out-of-the-blue proposals to sharply reduce Russia’s military and nuclear forces that were immediately countermanded by startied generals. By the time he returned home, Moscow was ablaze with rumors about Yeltsin’s fitness. They were fueled by the fact that Renat Akchurin, the surgeon who performed Yeltsin’s bypass a year ago, went along on the trip. (The Kremlin said that he only wanted to see his patient in action one year after the bypass.) Journalists traveling with Yeltsin were reassured about his health.” ‘He’s just tired’ was the message we got,” said one last week.

On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembsky laughed off the question about Yeltsin’s health: “I have long forgotten about his health problems,” he said. Just 86 hours later, Yeltsin was ordered to bed. On Thursday the president’s office released a soundless video of his meeting with an aide in Barvikha. The 30-second image of a weak Yeltsin shuffling unsteadily wasn’t entirely reassuring.

Yeltsin’s timing couldn’t be worse. Last week, the International Monetary Fund agreed to a $700 million loan installment for Russia. But few believe the next steps in Russia’s economic development can take place without Yeltsin’s riding herd from the top. His key deputy, Anatoly Chubais, has been badly wounded by a recent conflict of-interest scandal. One potential successor, First Deputy Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov, once a prodigy, is young and untested. And it’s never been entirely clear just how committed to further economic reform Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin is. (Should Yeltsin die or have to step down, Chernomyrdin would take over for three months before new elections were held.)

Foreign investors, who began fleeing Russia’s equity and debt markets last month as emerging markets everywhere plunged, won’t return if Yeltsin is incapacitated. Political uncertainty would also deter desperately needed longer-term investment. “Nine months ago,” said a U.S. executive in Moscow last week, “you could build a case around Russia that said Yeltsin was in charge after his heart operation. He had a potentially dynamic successor in Nemtsov; Chubais was keeping everyone focused, and it was full speed ahead. Now… who the hell knows?” Winter is here, and the calamities, natural or not, may have only begun.

With Owen Matthews in Moscow

Moscow Would Like a Second Opinion

When it comes to Boris Yeltsin’s health, the Kremlin has along history of providing half-truths and promoting misleading image–and of not owning up to the lies when found out.

What the Kremlin said

July 1995

Aides say Yeltsin has “heart pains” and release a photo of him working.

July 1996

During a campaign, Yeltsin vanishes. Aides blame a sore throat.

August 1996

Gone again, Yelsin is said to be scouting “possible vacation spots.”

What was really happening

July 1995

Yeltsin had suffered his first heart attack. The picture was doctored.

July 1996

Yeltsin had another heart attack. A doctor confirms it–after the election.

August 1996

Yeltsin is at a cardiology center in Moscow. Tests reveal he needs a bypass.